Brazil: Henrique Meirelles faces the tornado at CBB.
Pedro A. Xavier - 11.02.2007 19:48
Lula prefers that Meirelles stays but syntonized with him. The PT prefers to see Meirelles out. In the absence of Palocci, he guaranteed the depressive growth of the economy in the the last four years.
Brazil: Henrique Meirelles faces the tornado at CBB.
Crowned heads of PT had concluded in the last days: or Enrique Meirelles loses now the job of president of Central Bank of Brazil, or he relieves to the expectations of the party and the sectors that it tries to represent and makes the tax of interests fall faster.
The Real is excessively strong in relation to the dollar. It's felt again yesterday toward R$ 2,086. And exists the risk that it finishes the week or it inaugurates the next one below to R$ 2,00. Companies that do export get dollars. When they change the dollars for Reals, pocket less money. Companies that import goods make lots of money and profits. And the national industry loses market.
Since the beginning of the year, the Central Bank of Brazil's already taken off the reserves of the country something as US$ 6,6 billion to buy dollars and to prevent that the price of it inside here continues falling in such a way. It did not work.
The world crosses a rare moment of economy in expansion. Exist lots of money out there looking for good applications. And the interests paid for Brazil are high enough to attract part of this money.
The entrance of dollars in the country in last January, for example, was of US$ 3,770 billion. In January of the passed year, US$ 1,949 billion.
That is good and that is bad. That's good when money is invested in projects that help to unlock the growth of the economy. That's bad when money is here only for a moment.
It is motel-money...It is benefited of the high interests and leaves.
Central Bank of Brazil commands brazilian exchange politics. The government only pressures from very far away.
Perhaps I exaggerate to say that Central Bank of Brazil does really govern the country. But it is said. You can criticize what I 've said.
The former minister and former member of the house of representatives Delfim Neto (PMDB-SP), informal council member of Lula and quoted to enter in the government, alerts for the old agreement of Central Bank of Brazil of that the inflation will come back if the country grows beyond 3,5% to the year. Then…
In the day he was reelected, Lula promised to brazilian people a 5% growth to the year. He is obliged to pursue the goal knowing that it hardly will be reached. In speech, yesterday, in Rio, he said:
- The country cannot continue feeling fear of growing. It cannot continue having fear of increasing demand. Brazil has to feel fear of the reduction of demand.
In the last meeting of the Committee of Monetary Politics (COPOM), the tax of interests fell from 13,25% to 13% to the year. It had fallen a half percentile point in each one of the five previous meetings.
While Lula talks about demand increasing as something positive, it is seen as a danger by Central Bank of Brazil. The word “demand” appeared 18 times in the act of the last meeting of COPOM.
The Program of Acceleration of the Growth was celebrated by brazilian government and by all PT as a signal of that the Age Palocci - of the politics that contemplated the slow growth, gradual, however safe, arrives to the end.
But the Age Palocci will only arrive in fact at the end if Meirelles is dispatched of the presidency of Central Bank of Brazil. Or he dispatches the CBB's directors that make his head and if he adheres to the speech of that it is necessary to unlock the economy.
Lula prefers that Meirelles stays but syntonized with him. The PT prefers to see Meirelles out. In the absence of Palocci, he guaranteed the depressive growth of the economy in the the last four years.
 E-Mail: xavier@xavier.com.br
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