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EU-Lebanese Trade Deal Cause for U.S. Concern Stratfor.com - 20.06.2002 23:57
Summary. Lebanon and the European Union signed an economic treaty June 17, and the EU left the Lebanon-based Hezbollah group off a list of terrorist groups. Both incidents illustrate the EU´s attempts to enhance its economic presence in the Middle East -- which could put it at odds with Washington. Analysis Lebanon and the European Union June 17 signed the Euro-Mediterranean Treaty, which will allow for further political and economic cooperation between the two, including the preparation of a free-trade agreement. Under the deal both parties will eliminate all tariffs and quotas within 12 years. This is a boon for the EU, which exported $2.8 billion worth of goods to Lebanon in 2000. The Lebanese government hopes the agreement will attract direct foreign investment to the country -- still recovering from the 1975 to 1990 civil war -- and boost its sputtering economy. For the EU, the treaty also furthers its goal of trying to secure more market access to North Africa and the Middle East. But the ever-mounting integration of Europe into these regions economically could pose problems for U.S. security policy. Brussels already has signed association agreements with Tunisia, Morocco, Israel, Jordan, Egypt and Algeria, and currently is negotiating for Syria to join the Euro-Mediterranean treaty. Although the union traditionally has sought to expand its economic ties to Mediterranean states like Lebanon, now it is looking farther east as well. For instance, EU foreign ministers agreed June 17 to negotiate closer trade and political relations with Iran. While Europe is already Tehran´s main trading partner -- importing $8 billion in Iranian goods and exporting $4.9 billion in European goods in 2000 -- European energy companies would like greater access to one of the world´s largest sources of hydrocarbons. The treaty between Lebanon and the EU coincides with a recent decision by Brussels not to list the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, even while it included the Palestinian Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade and Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. Hezbollah has been conducting a guerrilla campaign against Israel since 1982 in response to the Jewish state´s occupation of Lebanon until 2000 and its current occupation of the Shebaa Farms region on the Israeli-Lebanese border. Over the last few months, the group has increased its sporadic rocket and gunfire attacks over the border. Washington has placed Hezbollah on its list of terrorist groups due to its alleged involvement in numerous attacks including the suicide truck bombing on the U.S. Embassy and U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut in October 1983. By not blacklisting Hezbollah, the EU likely is making a concession to Lebanon, Syria and Iran in order to receive greater access to Lebanon´s markets in the short run and Syria´s and Iran´s in the future. Hezbollah holds several seats in the Lebanese parliament and receives support from Syria and Iran, which view the group´s members as freedom fighters opposing the occupation of Lebanese territory. If the EU placed Hezbollah on its terrorist list, then the group´s assets could be frozen in Europe, complicating the Continent´s relationship with the three states. Conflict could erupt between Washington and Brussels as the EU continues to actively court countries in the region while the United States grows more aggressive in pursuing its security goals. Washington has set its sights on "axis of evil" members Iraq and Iran. The United States would like to have Europe´s full support for its plans, whether they include an invasion of Iraq or sanctions against Iran, but the EU sees plenty of economic opportunities in the region and does not wish to sacrifice its financial interests for U.S. strategic concerns. As Europe´s economy grows increasingly intertwined with that of Middle Eastern states, it will be less willing to completely go along with Washington´s plans and alienate its new economic partners in the process. Website: http://www.targets.org |
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